Gujarat 2017: How Modi alone won it for the BJP

The high voltage elections of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh came to end after its results were published yesterday. The BJP has not only retained Gujarat with a clear majority, but also wrested Himachal from the Congress. In this article, I will focus on various X- factors which were present in the Gujarat polls and on how Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s electrifying campaigning in the last lap titled the scales for the BJP in the western state.

BATTLE FOR GUJARAT – THE VARIOUS FACTORS THAT HAUNTED THE BJP

The State BJP was left without an authoritative, second-rung leadership after the departure of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to the Centre in 2014. Both Anandiben Patel, the former Chief Minister as well as Vijay Rupani, the incumbent CM had proved incable to fill the huge void left by the Prime Minister Modi. Modi’s outstanding performance as Gujarat CM for more than 13 years has set the bar very high for the successors which proved too much for the BJP state leadership. This was evident in their failure to address the Patidar Agitation and the Una incidents which gave opposition a chance to play its divisive politics.

At the same time, Congress lost no time in roping up the forces like Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani to divide the Hindus on caste lines inorder to counter the BJP. This divisive politics unfortunately gained mileage from the misinformation campaign run by the left-liberals and the Lutyens media which wanted a weakened Modi.

It also was widely reported that the trading community was angry with the BJP for its decisions, namely demonetization and GST. The fight against black money and course correction for economy by a unified taxation system was misrepresented by the media as a poor economic policy. Hence, it was excepted the Congress would benefit from the discontent in the industrial belt for south and urban Gujarat.

MODI’S CAMPAIGN SAVED THE BJP.

Modi started the campaign on November 27 from Bhuj, located close to the Pakistan border. He addressed 34 rallies till December 11 which gained edge for the BJP overriding all other factors, concentrating on:-

·         Nationalism as the trump card.

Gujarat, being predominantly Hindu and located close to Pakistan is always vigilant about the national security. It was the factor that worked for the BJP when the people remembered the Indian Army’s surgical strikes in POK in the aftermath of Uri in comparison with the response to 26/11. The people were reminded about Modi’s strong leadership in concerns with the security of the state coupled with his handling of law and order in tenure as the Chief Minister. The Congress leaders’ meeting with the Pakistani officials and Pakistan’s alleged role in Gujarat elections caught the opposition on a stick wicket.

·         Gujarati Asmita – “Gujarati pride”

The Gujaratis are always proud about the fact that the incumbent Prime Minister of India hails from their state. The Mani Shankar Aiyar’s comment about Modi, hurting the Gujarati honour has backfied for the Congress. The Prime Minister lost no chance in snatching the opportunity, turning it into a referendum for his leadership.

·        Modi’s developmental Agenda

Prime Minister Modi commands respect and popularity among all sections of voters for his track record as the Chief Minister and now as the Prime Minister. People, who even don’t like the BJP cherish Modi’s pet schemes which made Gujarat a developmental model which could be replicated throughout India. People also feared a Congress comeback would turned the clock back to 1980s when anarchy was prevalent due to caste conflicts in the state.

CONCLUSION

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in single handed manner have snatched the narrative from the opposition to see that BJP sailed past the finishing line quite comfortably in the end. This underlines the fact that the PM is the most potent weapon available for the party. Nationalism, Gujarati Asmita and developmental record has helped Modi, but BJP must be more careful when it approaches 2019. It has to ready itself to set the narrative rather than allowing the opposition to do so. Only then, it would emerge triumphant out of the vicious cycle of divisive politics played by the “sickular” parties.

INDIA AND ISRAEL – AN ALLIANCE OF MINDS

INTRODUCTION

Last July, Narendra Modi has become the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel. This has become a talking point in both the countries whose relations are rapidly strengthening as time moves on. The identity of minds, various geo-political factors and perception of a common enemy have led to cementing of friendship between the two countries. We will now try to analyse the history of Indo-Israel ties and various areas of bilateral co-operation.

THE HISTORY OF INDO-ISRAEL TIES

Indian government’s historical outlook towards the Jewish state has roots in India’s freedom struggle. The perception about the Jewish claims were first formed during the Khilafat movement which was considered as an opportunity to forge the Hindu-Muslim unity, but proved counter-productive in the long run reading to the Partition. The Congress party opposed the formation of Israel as it rejected the notion that religion being a basis of nationhood.

The position of the Congress was ironic since it was the same party under Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru which accepted and facilitated the communal partition of India.[1] India voted against Israel’s admission to the UN in 1949. In the meanwhile, it was the Hindu nationalist leaders like Veer Savarkar and Guruji Golwalkar who supported the creation of the Jewish state.[2]

 1

First Phase (1950s-1992) – The Era of Non-relations.

The times from 1950s to 1990s can be described as the phase of No official relations between India and Israel. India supported the Palestinian cause and never wanted to anger the Arab nations on whom it was dependent on for satisfying its ever-growing demand for oil and the Indian Muslim minority. It is a sad fact that India’s West Asia policy was for more than six decades hostage to the vote-bank politics.[3] At the same time, clandestine relations were formed with Israel mainly on military and intelligence fronts.[4]

The stand against Israel was short-sighted and self-defeating. Inspite of repeated support to the Palestinian cause, the Arab nations never failed to support Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and India’s gestures of friendship were never reciprocated. The fact that Arab support to Pakistan was based on religious solidarity was now clear to India. The feeling of betrayal by the Arab world, the rise of Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Indian politics and powerful lobbying by the Indian Americans provided stimulus for major changes in India’s foreign policy along with the.[5][6]

By 1991, the global political scenario had underwent a rapid change with the collapse of the Soviet Union. India, under the leadership of then Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao decided to end the era of non-relations with Israel by finally establishing the formal relations in 1992.

2.    Second Phase (1992-2004) – Expanding ties and Parallel Track Policy.

This period saw forging of India’s ties with Israel and maintaining healthy relations with Palestine at the same time. Even the arrival of BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee didn’t result in much change in this traditional policy. At the same time, he rolled out a red-carpet to his Israeli counterpart Ariel Sharon in 2003, ignoring the protests by the leftist and Muslim groups in the country.[7]

Indo-Israel relations expanded rapidly during this period. It is noteworthy to note that Israel was the only country to praise India for its nuclear tests at Pokhran in 1998.[8] The military ties also emerged stronger than ever with the vital help being provided by the Jewish state during the Kargil War, enabling the Indian Army to re-capture Tiger Hill.[9] Still, all the major Indian engagements to Israel were preceded or accompanied by high-profile visits to Palestine. In other words, a “diplomatic balance" was maintained.[10]

3.    Third Phase – Delinking Israeli relations from Palestinian issues.

This phase started with the United Progressive Alliance government with then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh separating the relations with Israel from the its Palestinian policy. It was during this time, many defence deals were made including the tie-up with Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd in 2007.[11] It is noteworthy to mention that RISAT-2 was developed by Israel.[12] This helped both the countries to maintain healthy relations despite India's repeated strong condemnations of Israeli military actions in Palestinian territories, which are believed by analysts to be motivated by the UPA government's desire for Muslim votes in India.[13]

4.    Fourth Phase – “Constructive Engagement” – The Rise of Narendra Modi[14]

The accession of Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled the departure of traditional policy with regard to India’s Middle East policy. The shift became clear when India abstained from multiple resolutions against Israel during this period. Modi’s engagements with Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE signals the paradigm shift. As P.R. Kumaraswamy puts it, “Earlier India had to accommodate the Arab-Islamic opposition to normalisation of relations with Israel, but now it is the other way around.”

Thanks to Prime Minister Modi’s diplomacy and India’s growing political clout, the Indo-Israel relations now flourishes not only on military and strategic ties, but also bilateral trade, collaboration in the fields of science and technology, agriculture, space, cultural ties, interfaith relations and tourism.

CONCLUSION

An old proverb says, “A friend in deed is a friend indeed.” Israel is the only country in the world to have supported India in the international arena along with its critical help during India’s multiple wars. In return, India is the only country in the world where the Jews have lived for more than two millennia without a single instance of discrimination from the majority community. Let us learn our own lessons from Israel’s spirited, glorious and victorious struggle for survival among the hostile neighbours.

I sincerely hope that India and Israel cement their alliance of minds on the ancient historical and cultural associations between this great lands and continue to prosper together.

---

[1] Swarajya Magazine, June 2017 Edn., P. R. Kumaraswamy, A Chequered Past, p. 22

[2] Abhyankar, Rajendra (March 2012). "The Evolution and Future of India-Israel Relations" (PDF). The S. Daniel Abraham Center for International and Regional Studies. Retrieved 6 November 2015.

[3] Aafreedi, Navras (2012). "The Impact of Domestic Politics on India's Attitudes towards Israel and Jews". In Singh, Priya; Susmita, Bhattacharya. Perspectives on West Asia: The Evolving Geopolitical Discourses. Shipra Publications. pp. 171–183. ISBN 9788175416376.

[4] http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/sep/08spec.htm (accessed at 21:33, 23-8-2017).

[5] http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-india-israel-alliance-part-1-the-arab-world/ (accessed at 21:56, 23-8-2017).

[6] http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-india-israel-alliance-part-ii-a-steady-forging-of-ties-from-1992-to-2000/ (accessed at 22:06, 23-8-2017).

[7] http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/sep/04sharon.htm (accessed at 22:12, 23-8-2017).

[8] Om Prakash Pahuja, India’s Nuclear Might, p. 135

[9] http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/israeli-help-and-indian-jugaad-in-recapture-of-tiger-hill-4735806/ (accessed at 22:25, 23-8-2017)

[10] Swarajya Magazine, June 2017 Edn., P. R. Kumaraswamy, A Chequered Past, p. 22

[11] "IAI signs $2.5 billion deal with India - Israel Business, Ynetnews". Ynetnews.com. 1995-06-20. Retrieved 2012-11-09.

[12] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Military-surveillance-gets-a-boost-with-RISAT-2/articleshow/4426913.cms (accessed at 22:46, 23-8-2017).

[13] Suroor, Hasan (15 March 2011). "West Asia policy hostage to ‘Muslim vote'". The Hindu. Retrieved October 7, 2012

[14] Swarajya Magazine, June 2017 Edn., P. R. Kumaraswamy, A Chequered Past, p. 22

INFILTRATION FROM BANGLADESH: CURSE AND CURE

INTRODUCTION

The influx of millions of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh have become one of the most important issues needed to be addressed by the national leadership of India. This problem is a multi-dimensional one, posing threat to India’s economic stability, demographic balance, national security and integrity. Yet, rather than being addressed, this problem was deliberately side-lined by various political parties and groups in pursuance of vested interests.

UNDERSTANDING THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM

India and Bangladesh (East Pakistan till 1971) share a long border spanning 4,096 km (across the states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura) since the partition of India on religious lines in 1947. The bloodshed which accompanied the partition saw large scale migrations of people on both sides of the border. Ever since, India has been recipient of millions of migrants who cross the border as result of various factors, political as well as economic.

The issue of illegal immigration was the root cause of the Assam Movement (1979-1985) led by All Assam Students Union (AASU). The central issue raised by the AASU was of ‘foreigners swamping Assam and the need for a national response to a national problem.’[1] The Assam Accord signed on Aug 15, 1985, failed to solve this problem even after Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) born out of this ‘anti-foreigner agitation’ two terms in power in 1985-1990 and 1996-2001 period. Now, the situation has acquired alarming proportions with the illegal migrants, included in electoral roles are supported by vote bank politics, leading to the suppression of the citizens of our country.

A.   Gigantic number of estimated illegal immigrants

While there is no reliable figure available on exact numbers of Bangladeshis staying in India unlawfully, there is no doubt that the flow of illegal immigrants continue unabated. According to analyses from census reports in 1971-2011 period, the figures are estimated to exceed 15 million. On Nov 16, 2016, Kiren Rijju, Union Minister for Home Affairs stated in Rajya Sabha that an estimated 20 million illegal Bangladeshi migrants are staying in India.[2] Most of these migrants are said to have settled in Assam and West Bengal while many have moved into the interiors of the country, even reaching metros like Delhi and Mumbai.

B.    Main threats of Bangladeshi infiltration.

1.      Huge changes in demographic pattern resulting in ethnic and communal conflicts, and finally danger of a second partition.

An important result of the influx of Bangladeshi migrants and their enrollment as voters was the alteration of religious demography in certain areas – especially Assam and West Bengal, showing a sharp decline of share of Hindus with a rapid rise in the share of Muslim population.

Table 1: Religious Demography of Assam 1971-2011

	1971	1991	2011
Hindus	72.51	67.13	61.47
Muslims	24.56	28.43	34.22

Table 2: Religious Demography of West Bengal 1971-2011[3]

	1971	1991	2011
Hindus	78.10	74.72	70.53
Muslims	20.46	23.61	27.01

Sources: Census of India.

A major point in regard to demographic imbalance is the fact that in 2011 Census, nine districts out of 27 in Assam have turned to be Muslim majority, up from six in 2001 with Dhubri in lower Assam emerging as an important pocket for infiltrators. The result of this alteration of demography on religious and linguistic lines, have resulted in rising danger of ethnic conflicts and communal riots, with the most recent one in being the 2012 Assam violence.[4] Most important threat is the looming danger of a “second partition” with the loss of Lower Assam aided and abetted by international Islamic terrorist groups along with Pakistan’s ISI.

In 1998, then governor of Assam S.K. Sinha had, in a report on illegal influx of Bangladeshi immigrants into Assam, warned that the "silent demographic invasion of Assam may result in the loss of the geo-strategically vital districts of Lower Assam".[5]

In the words of former Assam Governor SK Sinha, “The rapid growth of international Islamic fundamentalism may provide the driving force for this demand. The loss of lower Assam will severe the entire North-East from the rest of India and the rich natural resources of that region will be lost to the nation.”[6]

The effect of the altering demographic patterns are clearly visible in politics of Assam where All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by perfume baron Badaruddin Ajmal has seized a portion of the opposition space with 3 MPs in the Lok Sabha. AIUDF is known as a pro-immigrant party and is accused for encouraging infiltrators. Further, Upamanyu Hazarika Commission report mentioned that illegal migration from Bangladesh is threatening to reduce the indigenous population of Assam to a minority by the year 2047.[7]

C.   The need for Differentiation between refugees and infiltrators

While understanding the issue of Bangladeshi immigrants, it is necessary to differentiate between the refugees and ‘other immigrants’. The genuine refugees, mainly Hindus flee to India due to religious persecution since 1947. Political instability, constant communal riots, terrorism and the sense of insecurity of the Hindu minority has contributed to the large-scale refugee inflow into Assam and West Bengal.[8]

But, the issue of illegal immigrants, who can be termed as ‘economic migrants’ cannot be considered as refugees. Their constant inflow has created competition for jobs, land and other scare resources, resulting in continuous law and order problems and huge economic hardship for the country. Hereby, the authorities need to be differentiate between genuine refugees and ‘economic migrants’ while dealing with this complex issue.

D.   Existing Legal Framework and Policy for dealing with this problem

It should be noted that as of now, India doesn’t have a uniform national law for dealing with inflow of refugees or illegal immigrants. All Foreigners in India are covered under Foreigners Act, 1946, which defines a foreigner as “a person who is not a citizen of India.”[9] A major drawback of this law is that it doesn’t properly distinguish between refugees and illegal immigrants, nor does it define refugees as a specific category needing humanitarian protection. The worst sufferers are genuine refugees from Bangladesh (mostly Hindus) with no one to look after their interests.[10]

Another important law passed by the Indian Parliament with regard to this problem was the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act, 1983, which was a miserable failure and was set aside by the Hon’ble Supreme Court in 2005. Further to note that this IMDT Act was in fact favourable for the migrants with a provision that the onus of establishing the nationality rests not on the illegal immigrant, not even on the government, but on the private individual who must also pay a fee to lodge a complaint and do so under stipulated jurisdiction.[11]

WHAT ARE THE SOLUTIONS?

A.   A specific law for accommodating refugees from Bangladesh.

As per international norms, refugees, are people who left their home country to take shelter in foreign countries on account of persecution of the grounds of religion, ethnicity, politics etc.[12] This itself qualifies the persecuted minorities of Bangladesh for asylum in India as against the case of ‘economic migrants’. Hence, a specific law for refugees from Bangladesh is a must to distinguish the genuine refugees and illegal immigrants. The Citizenship (Amendement) Bill, 2016, introduced by the Narendra Modi government is a welcome step in this direction.[13]

But measures must be also taken to prevent the illegal immigrants from making use of the law for refugees. As far as the re-settlement of the refugees was concerned, Assam and West Bengal should not be given the burden. The refugees should be re-settled across the country and should not be allowed to concentrate in the North-East, which would prevent the any sort of animosity with the local people.

B.    Forging a bilateral agreement with Bangladesh

The Indian Government should take steps to sign a bilateral agreement with Bangladesh on the issue of immigrants. The important conditions and follow-up action after a bilateral agreement can be as follows:-

1.      Providing work permits to certain specified categories and numbers of Bangladeshi migrants (after proper verification and necessary travel documents)

2.      The persons with work-permits must be allowed only in certain restricted locations and specified employment.

3.      A separate electronic database must be made about the details of all refugees as well as the immigrants with work places for surveillance. It must also be made accessible to all the police stations in the country.

C.   Identifying and deporting illegal immigrants.

One of the biggest headaches of the government regarding the immigrant issue is on identification, verification and deportation of the infiltrators. Various pull-factors like proximity and kinship, common language, interested religious and political elements etc. make the task of the government near impossible. This is mainly due to the local politicians and government functionaries who enable the infiltrators to procure ration cards, enabling them to enrol as voters.

Only a series of steps will enable us to tackle this problem. The proposed steps are as follows:-

1.      Amending Foreigners Act, 1946 to impose stricter penal provisions for facilitating illegal immigration, harbouring a foreign national and concealing their presence.

2.      The process of updating of National Register of Citizens must be completed without delay.

3.      Non-Governmental Organizations and people must be encouraged to assist in the identification of the infiltrators.

4.      A joint verification mechanism with Bangladesh must be activated for the purpose of verifying the nationality of the persons concerned and ensure smooth deportation.

D.   Preventing further infiltration

The major cause of immigration influx is the porous Indo-Bangladesh border of which one-fourth is riverine, and 63 km is maritime. The issue of enclaves in each other’s territory was resolved by the bilateral Land Boundary Agreement, signed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina in 2015.[14]

India is also working on barbed-wire fencing including electrification and installation of flood-lights. Vigorous patrolling, electronic surveillance and ensuring better communication and co-ordination among various security agencies would help to curb the infiltration to a great extent. Strict action must be taken against agents who facilitate infiltration, considering the magnitude of this issue.

CONCLUSION

As stated above, the infiltration from Bangladesh must be curbed at the earliest for the ensuring the integrity of the country. None other than our Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself has spoken about the seriousness of this problem. Further, the victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Assam in May 2016 has raised the hopes among the people in resolving this issue. Let us hope for the best and stand united.

Jai Hind!

---

[1] Archana Upadhyay, the ‘Infiltrator’ Issue, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 40, No. 28 (July 9-15, 2005), pp. 3002-3004.

[2] http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/two-crore-illegal-bangladeshis-living-in-india-government-4379162/ (accessed on 03-02-17 at 18:15)

[3] http://www.thestatesman.com/opinion/bengal-s-topsy-turvy-population-growth-93152.html

[4] http://www.firstpost.com/india/assam-riots-fruits-of-living-in-denial-over-bangladesh-influx-390536.html (accessed on 03-02-17 at 20:26)

[5] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Muslim-majority-districts-in-Assam-up/articleshow/48682463.cms (accessed on 03-02-17 at 19:44.)

[6] http://www.rediff.com/news/1999/feb/13secu.htm (accessed on 03-02-17 at 20:50)

[7] http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/rss-likely-to-pass-resolution-on-population-imbalance/ (accessed on 03-02-17 at 20:23)

[8] Datta, P. (2004). Push-Pull Factors of Undocumented Migration from Bangladesh to West Bengal: A Perception Study, The Qualitative Report, 9(2), 335-358, p. 15.

[9] Foreigners Act, 1946, Section 2(a).

[10] Sanjeev Tripathi, Article, Illegal Immigration from Bangladesh to India: Towards a Comprehensive Solution, (June 29, 2016)

[11] Archana Upadhyay, the ‘Infiltrator’ Issue, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 40, No. 28 (July 9-15, 2005), pp. 3003.

[12] Ibid.

[13] http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/indian-citizenship-possibility-hindus-facing-persecution-pakistan-bangladesh-1563549 (accessed on 04-02-17 at 19:34).

[14] http://indiafacts.org/examining-the-indo-bangla-land-boundary-agreement/ (accessed on 04-02-17 at 19:27).