The month of October 2014 saw a
sharp increase in the number of ceasefire violations by Pakistan across the
Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB). This is seen as a move by
Pakistan to push in maximum number of trained jihadis to Kashmir before the
onset of winter. However, strong retaliation by the Indian Army and the Border
Security Force (BSF) has led to sharp decline in firing across the border.
The major question is about the ulterior motive of the Pakistani army to resort to unprovoked firing. Can this be considered as a normal incident? Is Pakistan desperate about the rise of Modi-led India?
The major question is about the ulterior motive of the Pakistani army to resort to unprovoked firing. Can this be considered as a normal incident? Is Pakistan desperate about the rise of Modi-led India?
There had been a number of instances of unprovoked firing by Pakistan since the signing of ceasefire agreement a decade ago. Those instances were mainly just to give cover to the terrorists from the POK – Pakistan Occupied Kashmir – to sneak into India and also to degrade the morale of Indian Army. The worst incident was the beheading of an Indian soldier by the Pakistani troops in January 2013. The previous UPA government’s weak-kneeled response resulted in demoralzation of our brave jawans and humiliation of the nation.
But, this time, everything was different. Ceasefire violations in October were not a normal incident. It was one of the largest skrimishes since the declaration of ceasefire in 2003. The aim was not just a covering fire for the infiltrators. It was something else.
It is an undisputed fact that Pakistan is wary about the rise of India with a strong leadership. India’s increasing clout in the global community was signalled at the BRICS summit in last June where the major breakthrough was the formation of a new BRICS bank with India at the it’s presidentship for the next six years. The additional signs came in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic visits to Japan and the United States. The PM had effectively countered Pakistan’s attempt to raise Kashmir issue in the United Nations General Assembly. Pakistan was further incesed at the tremendous goodwill for India generated by Modi’s speech at the Madison Square, which was much more than a mega-Bollywood event.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking at Madison Square
All these events (including the cancellation of talks by the Modi Govt after Pak High Commissioner met seperatist Hurriyat Conference leaders) no doubt, left Pakistan frustrated, prompting it to up the ante across the border. A move that might help in keeping limelight away from India’s achivements (eg:- successful Mars mission-Mangalyaan) and internationalize the Kashmir issue. Pak is also not happy about India’s economic recovery and speedy growth. After all, the Pakistani ISI had been conducting terror strikes in the country as well as pumping in fake Indian currency to destabilize India’s economy.
So, what needs to be done?
We had been bleeding for last three decades due to the proxy war (cross-border terrorism) which is planned and funded by Pakistan. Pakistan is not a rational state. It sees itself as an Islamic nation fighting ‘Hindu’ India to finish. So, we can’t expect Pakistan to reform by dialogue. It needs another co-ordinated strategy.
The strategy for dealing with Pakistan must be a two-pronged one.
1. Avoid weak, spineless policies of the former UPA Govt. Pakistan must be made to understand that each attack (covert or direct) on India will invite a strong counter-attack. There must be emphasis on enhancing our intelligence gathering system across the border. The NDA govt should also conduct ‘hot pursuits’ to apprehend terrorists hiding in Pakistan.
2. Play a tit-for-tat policy. Aid Baluchis for independence and support the democratic government in Afghanistan. This would help us to encircle Pakistan from it’s western border and keep Taliban at the bay.
It is an openly known fact that strong retaliation is the only language that Pakistan will understand. We must also be careful since Americans will withdraw from Afghanistan in the near future which will prompt Pakistan to start another bloodbath in Kashmir.
How is the response of the Modi Govt?
I, as a citizen, would like to appreciate the strong response by the Govt. The Prime Minister should be applauded for giving free hand to the troops to deal with this unprovoked firing. This approach led to steep decline in firing as Pakistani forces suffered heavy losses (atleast 35 deaths against just eight on the Indian side). These casualities have also led to a media blackout in Pakistan. It is said that Pakistan was shocked by ferocity of the Indian response. With this, the Modi Govt have successfully restored the honour of the nation which was humiliated when our soldiers were beheaded a year back.
Prime Minister Modi has done well to teach Pakistan a befitting lesson. As he said in an election rally in Maharashtra, our jawans have shut their mouth. But, it is also eually important not to become complacent. Modi Govt should continue this robust approach and evolve a new security policy to clinch the ultimate victory in this war of attrition.
Best Wishes!!

